So it turns out, in government, civic society, and life more generally, finding out of if something actually works (eg, achieves the change you wanted it to) is actually rather hard. People have done excellent talks about this. The UK Government has got a book about this. And yet it's still all pretty hard, and people tend to be very confidently wrong.

I've spent a lot of my time trying to run evaluations in government, but it's not exactly a fun thing to teach... so instead, I'm proposing a bit of a lab experiment: let's run an experiment on ration club (or something else lab related you control!)

If people are interested, we'll spend a few hours talking through what sort of changes we might want to make to RC, then hopefully actually test them, robustly, record what changes, and run a full experiment from cradle to grave. We'll start from first principles, so a vague understanding of causal inference and statistics is very welcome, but absolutely not necessary.

PS: it will defo go wrong.

Relevant reading:

• all the evaluations linked above
• Some of the other topics of data + evidence
• Freakonomics!
• If you're feeling hardcore, Causal Inference for the Brave and True, my bible.